THE FORECASTING OF THE WORLD OIL PRICE BY SUMMING UP LINEAR TREND AND PERIODIC FUNCTIONS

E. S. Dokuchaev, A. M. Rogacheva, E. V. Evtushenko

Аннотация


The article discuss the analysis of factors forming the world price for oil, the existing methods of forecasting have been considered, the model of forecasting the world oil price, the amounts of the linear trend and periodic functions have been offered on the basis of the theory of business cycles, restrictions on its use have been given grounds for.

Полный текст:

PDF

Литература


>1. Konoplyannic А. World market. The structure's of the oil market evolution // Oil of Russia, №№ 4, 7, 8.- 2000.

2. Khartukov Е.М. World oil market: the structure's evolution and price revolution // The world economics and foreign affairs.– №1.- 1998.- С.109-122.

3. Khartukov Е.М. Oil market prices: foreign and home aspects //Oil industry.- №1.- 2001.- С.18-26.

4. Box G.E.P., Jenkins G.M. Time series analysis: forecasting and control. Second edition. Holden-Day Press, San-Francisco, 1976.

5. Kil'dishev G.S., Frenkel A.A. Time series analysis and forecasting. Мoscow.: Statistica, 1973.- 100 p.

6. Samuelson P., Nordhouse V.: Economics. The fifteenth edition. Moscow, Binom-Kno Rus, 1997.- 800 p.

7. Petrov V.V., Artyushkin V.F. Prices' behavior on the world oil market (strategic trends, speculations, macro scenarios). Moscow. Fazis, 2004.- 192 p.


Ссылки

  • На текущий момент ссылки отсутствуют.