Sajjad Mubin, U. A. Goryainov


Looking its high energy demand, Pakistan is planning to import natural gas through pipelines from neighboring countries. For fully utilizing the imported gas, providing it to end customers, the infrastructure of gas pipeline is being developed. Therefore a huge investment is being carried out in this sector. During the last 10 years the network of main and distribution gas pipeline has been expanded by 85%. But the geological and geographical conditions of Pakistan are tough for the construction. On one side there are glaciers and high mountains, on the other side there is desert and plan of river Indus with extensive network of wide rivers and canals. There is always risk of earthquake, landslides and floods. Instable Government policies, high rate of inflation, rapid change in material prices are also important risk factors. Looking the current geopolitics situation there is a persistent threat of war and terrorism in the country. All these factors make the situation very complex in quantifying the risk factors especially when the project is gas pipeline in which the impact factor of risk exponentially rise in case of risk occurrence. Moreover, due to the absence of modern project or risk management techniques and methodologies the projects are usually not completed in their planned time or budget. Effort has been made to quantify the associated risks of gas pipeline project on the basis of historical data. The research will be helpful to separate the most important risks from the trivial many for the construction of any sort of pipeline project in the northern areas of Pakistan.

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